SSA & Covered Bond Navigator: Global bond supply forecast for 2027

Research evidence excerpt

SSA & Covered Bond Navigator: Global bond supply forecast for 2027

SSA & Covered Bond Navigator

10 July 2026 Citi Research

Global bond supply forecast for 2027

Jussi Harju, CFA Overall G3 sovereign net supply should ease further in 2027, driven by lower NCR in

Puja Sawant EMU-11 and the UK, while US net supply remains broadly unchanged. For EGBs,

the key theme remains one of higher gross issuance but lower net supply, reflecting

the moderation in ECB QT. While Germany drives issuance growth and Spain drives

the decline in NCR, EGB markets are likely to be shaped by a front-loaded Q1

supply and a busy election schedule - particularly France and Italy. Moderating

issuance WAMs and a declining share of 30yr supply should keep aggregate EGB

DV01 supply relatively contained in 2027, despite record gross issuance.

In € SSAs, gross supply is forecast to remain elevated in 2027, but NCR will drop

sharply as NGEU net funding ends. We forecast €440bn of gross supply and €192bn

of NCR for € SSAs in 2027, the latter down 37% from 2026. We expect WAM of € SSA

supply to increase slightly in H2 26, after which we believe it could continue to

decline in 2027 owing to lower expected supply from the EU. In 2027, majority of the

DV01 of € SSA is expected to come from the EU. However, as its share of DV01 of €

SSA supply is set to decrease, the overall DV01 burden should be lower in 2027.

G3 sovereign supply outlook for 2027

The key theme for euro-area in 2027 is a continued rise in gross EGB issuance

alongside an easing net supply. EMU-11 gross supply is projected to reach a record

€1.5tn in 2027 (+3% y/y), following an 8% increase in 2026. The increase is largely

mechanical, reflecting a further increase in redemptions to €989bn (+6% y/y; Figure