INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

JULY 10, 2026

20 SECONDS:

- Two key drivers behind market moves yesterday: 1) Geopol noise quietening and 2) Tech bounce

on headlines that relieved concerns about slowing capex. MOMO gains capped as short leg

squeezed on geopol relief.

- Continue to watch RU/UA developments: NATO commentary suggests Trump more supportive of

Ukraine escalating attacks; growing role of drones key support behind Modern Warfare theme (Taiwan

a central market), Russia now one of the largest contributors to today’s exceptionally weak

global refining activity.

- The geopol-driven move in rates in Europe this week was overdone. Our strategists enter tactical

longs in 10Y German and UK rates.

- The silver lining to the recent Tech/AI unwind is a cleaner setup into Q2 earnings. Research is

out with a bullish outlook for Semis/Semi Cap Equipment earnings in Q2.

- Main catalysts NEXT WEEK: China Trade, GDP, Retail Sales, Property Prices, IP, FAI. US CPI,

Retail Sales. Fed Chair Warsh testifies. US Bank, NFLX, ASML & TSMC earnings.

- Drew is out with US Market Intel’s Views and Themes for July – key themes incl. AI, Geopolitics,

Global Growth Reboot and Market Broadening.

- JPM Research: Deep dive into the brave “new” old world of Industrial Policy.

MKT INTEL VIEWS: Two key drivers behind market moves yesterday: 1) Geopol noise quietening, with

both oil and rates moving lower. The view that neither side has incentives for kinetic escalations still holds,

with US reporting technical talks with Iran continue despite recent strikes. 2) Tech bounce on headlines that

relieved concerns about slowing capex (META planning to double compute capacity in 2027), with AI

momentum alive and well.