Mexico Airports: Traffic X-Ray: Dissecting Historical Performance and Projecting the Path Ahead; Momentum to Modestly Improve in 3Q26

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico Airports: Traffic X-Ray: Dissecting Historical Performance and Projecting the Path Ahead; Momentum to Modestly Improve in 3Q26

J P M O R G A N Latin America Equity Research

10 July 2026

Mexico Airports

Traffic X-Ray: Dissecting Historical Performance and

Projecting the Path Ahead; Momentum to Modestly

Improve in 3Q26

Mexico’s three listed airport groups — ASUR, GAP, and OMA — are emerging Latin American Transportation

ACfrom a prolonged period of traffic headwinds, and while near-term conditions Guilherme Mendes

remain uneven, there are signs of sequential improvement. Following a robust 5% (55-11) 4950-4105

traffic CAGR between 2007 and 2019, and a swift post-pandemic recovery that guilherme.g.mendes@jpmorgan.com

pushed consolidated Mexican traffic above pre-COVID levels already by 2022, the Julia Orsi

sector lost momentum from mid-2024 (-0.4% CAGR through 2023–2026 LTM) as (55-11) 4950 3351

a confluence of factors weighed on volumes: AICM capacity constraints, low-cost julia.orsi@jpmorgan.com

Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

carrier supply restrictions tied to Pratt & Whitney engine issues, security concerns,

the Spirit Airlines bankruptcy, and World Cup–related demand disruption. Ex-

Mexico operations in Puerto Rico, Colombia, and Jamaica offer a degree of

geographic diversification, though they remain modest offsets to domestic

headwinds. That said, the picture is gradually improving — preliminary OAG

capacity data point to a sequential recovery into 3Q26, with average seat capacity

in Mexico tracking approximately 1.6% higher year-over-year. While actual traffic

performance will ultimately depend on load factors for the offered seats, this

represents a decent improvement relative to the 4% traffic decline reported in

2Q26.