Global Macro Strategy - Views and Trade Ideas

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Strategy - Views and Trade Ideas

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09 Jul 2026 23:01:13 ET │ 22 pages

Global Macro Strategy - Views and

Trade Ideas

Themes Into 2H26

Dirk Willer AC

CITI'S TAKE +1-212-723-1016

dirk.willer@citi.com

While the latest Iran headlines are likely a fade, we took profits in the assets

most directly linked to oil prices (European equities and Hungarian rates). Adam Pickett AC

While Chair Warsh has moved away from forward guidance, Fed pressers +44-20-7500-5777

remain informative. Our NLP analysis of pressers finds that rate moves on adam.pickett@citi.com

FOMC days are typically larger than on data days. Looking ahead, earnings AC

season is likely to see more beats in tech and we find that crowding before Alex Saunders

earnings explains some price action. Midterms will also come into view. +1-212-723-1058

Rates have tended to weaken into midterm elections, before reversing alexander.saunders@citi.com

course afterwards. The SPX is not overly impressive in midterm years, but AC Giammarco Mianitrades better in case of a divided government outcome. Moving to Japan, we

initiate a 1yr payer, which would benefit from a more hawkish than expected +44-20-7986-6316

Fed, but with better risk control. giammarco.miani@citi.com

Charlie Massy-Collier AC

Iran – likely a fade — Our oil strategist thinks the oil spike is likely a fade, given that +44-20-7986-2692

incentives to reach a deal still prevail on both sides. Furthermore, it’s now better charlie.massycollier@citi.com

understood that prices above 120 need a fairly long SoH closure, given China’s role

as a swing importer. However, the market is broadly positioned for lower oil, and we Alice Zheng AC

therefore took profits in some of the most directly linked oil plays (European equities +1-212-816-0382