Power gap: a deep dive on US electricity supply & demand

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Power gap: a deep dive on US electricity supply & demand

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Industrials/Multi-Industry

Power gap: a deep dive on US electricity

supply & demand

Industry Overview

A 100+ GW opening for on-site power generation 08 July 2026

We believe the US could face an electricity generation shortfall of 100+ gigawatts (GW) Equity

between 2026-30. Our analysis combines the BofA semiconductor team’s chip forecasts Americas

with recent trends in US demand. The result suggests 230+ GW of capacity demand. Industrials/Multi-Industry

This is well above the BofA US utilities team’s forecast for ~93 GW of accredited supply Andrew Obin

from regulated utilities. With demand well above supply, we see the gap being filled Research Analyst

through a combination of on-site power generation, working existing on-grid assets BofAS+1 646 855 1817

longer, adding batteries, and demand destruction. Within our coverage, we view Buy- andrew.obin@bofa.com

rated GE Vernova (GEV), Eaton (ETN), Emerson (EMR), and INNIO (INIO) as beneficiaries. Vivek Arya

Research Analyst

BofAS

+1 646 855 1755Semis forecast implies a surge in US electricity demand...

vivek.arya@bofa.com

BofA’s global semiconductor team recently raised its forecast for data center-related

Ross Fowler, CFA

chip volumes through 2030 (see their Watts to Tokens report here). This includes a Research Analyst

bottom-up analysis of demand across both merchant and custom chips (e.g., Amazon BofAS

+1 646 855 1506

Web Services’ Trainium). Their global chip forecast would drive 208 gigawatts (GW) of ross.fowler@bofa.com

global IT load over 2026-30. North America has approximately half of existing data David Ridley-Lane, CFA

center installed base, suggesting over 100+ GW of load growth from data centers alone. Research Analyst BofAS