REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
*J.P. Morgan Asia FTM 10 Jul 26: TSMC: Raise CoWoS capacity estimates; Taiwan drone exports on the rise; Lenskart: Initiate at OW; CH Shipbuilding: Multi-year visibility; Korea 2Q preview: CH AI chip fabless. Thu Jul 09 2026
Research evidence excerpt
*J.P. Morgan Asia FTM 10 Jul 26: TSMC: Raise CoWoS capacity estimates; Taiwan drone exports on the rise; Lenskart: Initiate at OW; CH Shipbuilding: Multi-year visibility; Korea 2Q preview: CH AI chip fabless. Thu Jul 09 2026
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Asia First to Market 10 July 2026
Top Stories
TSMC (2330.TW, OW – NT$2415.0), Taiwan (Gokul Hariharan)
CoWoS and Advanced Packaging Updates
Raising CoWoS capacity further at TSMC and at a faster pace at OSATs: We are raising our FY26/27/28
CoWoS capacity estimates further by 1%/9%/11%, with TSMC’s CoWoS capacity reaching 115k/190k/225k
wfpm by end 26/27/28. TSMC appears to have accelerated its capacity expansion plans in AP7 Phase 2
(now 50-60% allocated to CoWoS, compared to 100% SoIC in prior plans) and also outsourcing interposer
wafer manufacturing selectively to Vanguard, to bring on more capacity. TSMC also seems to be again
expanding some CoWoS-R capacity, in response to strong CPU and accelerator demand from NVDA and
AWS, respectively. At the same time, OSAT capacity expansion for CoWoS-like processes is picking up
momentum, and we expect OSATs CoWoS-like capacity to reach 15k/50k/85k wfpm by end 26/27/28. Bulk
of OSAT capacity is likely to be deployed for server CPU packaging, followed by networking and small
volumes for accelerator chips such as LPU or Trainium 3. Overall, the demand-supply gap has recently
expanded to ~20%, given the meaningful upside from agentic AI CPU demand.
Trend Tapestry (Hannah L Lee)
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