Daily Economic Briefing: No eclipse of the capex cycle

Research evidence excerpt

Daily Economic Briefing: No eclipse of the capex cycle

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

09 July 2026

Daily Economic Briefing

No eclipse of the capex cycle

Economic and Policy Research

Alex Gallin

(1-212) 270-5492

alex.gallin@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

• The ongoing tech cycle continues to support capex momentum across Asia, Maia(1-212)Crook622-8435

consistent with today’s Focus that suggests global capex is tracking close to a maia.crook@jpmorgan.com

10%ar 2Q26 gain. Recent releases report boomy Vietnam and Taiwan tech JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

imports in June and firm Japan machinery orders in April. The US May trade Nora Szentivanyi

report also points to a pickup in non-tech imports, which should broaden the (44-20) 7134-7544

strength in US capex and Asian exports. A portion of the rise in trade flows nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

represents price increases, but volume gains are reflected in global industrial J.P. Morgan Securities plc

production which looks to be tracking a 4%ar gain in the three months through Joseph Lupton

May. (1-212) 834-5735

joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com

Asia nominal capex indicators JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

Index; Dec '19 = 100, nsa Index; Dec '19 = 100, sa

400 Taiwan 220

(capital goods imports) Japan

(pvt. core machinery orders)

300 180

Vietnam

(machinery & tech imports)

200 140

100 100

0 60

15 17 19 21 23 25

Source: CAO, MoF, NSOV, J.P. Morgan

• Tensions remain elevated in the Middle East after two consecutive days of

renewed strikes and fading prospects for US-Iran diplomacy. Despite renewed

threats around the Strait of Hormuz, Brent futures moved back towards $76/bbl

today.

• Falling energy prices after the initial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are

easing some headline inflation pressures, but the latest June report shows