BDC Flows: 2Q’26 Redemption & Inflow Data, Updated Pricing Thoughts, and 2H Outlook

Research evidence excerpt

BDC Flows: 2Q’26 Redemption & Inflow Data, Updated Pricing Thoughts, and 2H Outlook

tion requests were pulled from investor press releases rather than SEC filings

Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.

All funds that received > 5% redemption requests will fulfill only 5% in 2Q’26, compared

to 1Q’26 where multiple funds extended to fulfill >5%. We estimate gross outflows of

$5.7bn in the quarter and we estimate $2.7bn of inflows (including DRIP) which implies

net outflows of $3.1bn or 2.56% of NAV. A very manageable number in the context of their

financing capacity, Level II assets, and finally the maturity profile of assets.

Given the better than expected performance at funds like OAKSCF and GSCRED, we do

believe that contrary to popular belief redemptions continue from the wealth channel and

within that from international investors. The higher redemption at PNT is not a case of retail

investors in the US selling private to buy publics. This is more about large family offices

making asset allocation decisions away from direct lending and into other asset classes.

Multiple managers released commentary on what the redemption composition was for

2Q’26. Starting with APODS, management stated that the redemption trends experienced a

regional split with U.S. onshore redemption requests of 4.3%, while redemptions from

offshore investors increased to 12.5%, totaling 16.8% in 2Q’26. ARESSI’s redemption

requests totaled 14.4%, and nearly two-thirds of the requests were submitted by investors

who had tendered in the prior quarter. Furthermore, management stated that redemption

requests were concentrated among non-U.S. investors, and specifically non-U.S. institutions

and family offices. Turning to BCRED, whose redemptions totaled 10%, didn't have much