Chile: Looking beyond the flat monthly CPI print

Research evidence excerpt

Chile: Looking beyond the flat monthly CPI print

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

09 July 2026

Chile

Looking beyond the flat monthly CPI print

Economic and Policy Research

Diego W. Pereira

(1-212) 834-4321

diego.w.pereira@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Headline consumer prices printed null variation in June, a firmer than Juan Goldin

(57 601) 869 8746

expected print juan.goldin@jpmchase.com

Ex.volatile CPI averaged 0.3%m/m in 2Q, same as in 2Q25, despite BANCO J.P. MORGAN COLOMBIA S.A

weaker activity and higher unemployment

Real labor remuneration rose 1.0%m/m, sa in May, and accelerated to

4.1%3ma, saar

Core services, most relevant underlying CPI metric, continues to show

persistence, running at 4.9%ar

The underlying inflation data, therefore, continue to align with the Board

holding the policy rate stable

We typically distribute this note immediately after the inflation report is released.

Unfortunately, a technical issue yesterday delayed its delivery. We apologize for

the inconvenience and appreciate your understanding.

Inflation proved firmer than expected in June. Headline CPI declined only

marginally, falling -0.02%m/m in June, well above expectations (BBG -0.2%,

JPMorgan -0.21%). The trailing 12-month print moved higher on base effects, to

4.34%oya, from 3.9% in the prior month. When seasonally adjusted, the headline

figure also posted a strong increase of 0.56%m/m variation, and the three-month

annualized metric reached 8.3%, easing a bit from the 9.5%ar observed in the prior

month.

The breakdown showed deflation in Transportation and Clothing and Footwear,

while food prices contributed positively. Transportation recorded monthly

declines in six of its eleven categories. The most significant was fuels for personal