Energy Shock Monitor

Research evidence excerpt

Energy Shock Monitor

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

09 July 2026

Economic and Policy Research

Nora Szentivanyi

(44-20) 7134-7544

nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Here's how we’re reading the latest activity and price data: Maia Crook

(1-212) 622-8435

• Global flights continue to recover from their recent underperformance, maia.crook@jpmorgan.com

led by a steady updrift in China flight activity. The US and Europe continue to JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

look resilient. Vehicle activity remains in line with its seasonal norms, both Artem Fakhretdinov

globally and broadly across regions. (1-212) 272-1839

artem.fakhretdinov@jpmorgan.com

• In the week through July 3rd, global tankers imports continued to drift JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

downwards from an early-June peak. China has leveled off well below its pre-

conflict levels, and Europe has fallen back to approach its post-conflict low.

• A 9% rise in Brent in the past week has closed some of the gap with retail fuel

prices which have been slower to moderate. Gasoline prices are still down

w/w but have inched higher in the past two days to 15% above pre-conflict.

• Jet-fuel and natural gas prices also posted renewed gains, while container

shipping costs continue to rise unabated, suggesting that core goods price

pressures are still likely building.

Daily flight numbers Retail gasoline prices by region

%oya, 28d mov avg Index, 26-Feb-2026 = 100

9 Asia (ex-China) 160 Brent

6 Europe 150 Global*

3 US 140 US

130 0 EM Asia

-3

110 Europe

-6 China 100 Conflict

-9 90

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Source: Rystad Energy, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: National sources, Bloomberg Finance L.P., JPM.

*JPM agg based on daily/weekly data for 21 economies.

Activity tracking