Mexico Economics: Banxico minutes: Stable rates

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico Economics: Banxico minutes: Stable rates

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09 Jul 2026 12:07:02 ET │ 8 pages

Mexico Economics

Banxico minutes: Stable rates

CITI'S TAKE

The minutes from Banxico’s June meeting support our view of no rates

changes for the remainder of the year. The board remains divided on the

inflation outlook; three members highlighted disinflationary factors like

economic slack and the strong peso, while two expressed significant Julio Cesar RuizAC

concern over persistent services inflation. Views on the rate differential +52-55-8421-6833

were also mixed, with some seeing it as a constraint and others as still julio.ruiz@citi.com

favorable when adjusted for real rates and volatility. While we expect a

Felipe JuncalAC prolonged pause, we acknowledge a risk that the board could consider

rate cuts by the end of this year or the beginning of the next if activity felipe.juncal@citi.com

remains weak, the MXN stays resilient, and core inflation continues to

improve, though the narrow rate differential remains the primary

constraint.

Banxico published the minutes of June’s monetary policy meeting where board

members unanimously decided to maintain the policy rate at 6.5%. The board

members’ views from the minutes confirmed the message from the statement’s

forward guidance that it would be appropriate to maintain the reference rate at its

current level.

A consensus emerged among all five members to maintain the policy rate at its

new level going forward. Four members viewed the current stance as adequate or

sufficiently solid to continue the disinflationary process. By contrast, one member

advocated for a more deliberate and conditional pause, arguing that any additional

easing would require convincing evidence of a sustained convergence of inflation.