US Semiconductor Equipment: Big Three Capex Preview

Research evidence excerpt

US Semiconductor Equipment: Big Three Capex Preview

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09 Jul 2026 11:23:57 ET │ 10 pages

US Semiconductor Equipment

Big Three Capex Preview

CITI'S TAKE

We preview the capex updates of the Big-Three (TSMC, Samsung, and

Intel) ahead of 2Q earnings. The Big-Three were ~55% of 2025 WFE

spend. We maintain our view that the equipment group is in Phase 2

upcycle and believe 2026/27/28 WFE is tracking towards our bull cases of Atif MalikAC

$145Bn/$200Bn/$250Bn (see note). While we expect modest upward +1-415-951-1892

revisions to 2026 capex across the Big Three due to equipment lead times, atif.malik@citi.com

we believe investor focus is increasingly centered on the potential for

Elizabeth Sun, CFA further spending upside in 2027/2028 plus modest gross margin lift from

pricing/volume. We like Buy-rated AMAT, LRCX, TER, and AEIS into +1-212-816-3308

elizabeth.sun@citi.com earnings.

TSMC – TSMC (covered by Laura Chen) reports earnings on 7/16 before market open

(see preview). On its April earnings call, TSMC raised 2026E capex to the high end of

the $52-$56Bn range driven by robust demand from HPC and AI applications, and

reiterated the expectation of significantly higher capex in the next three years. Citi

models 2027E/28E capex of $75Bn/$80Bn, implying 36%/7% Y/Y growth and up

from $68Bn/$75Bn prior, vs. Street consensus (FactSet) of 20%/19% growth (vs

16%/9% a quarter ago). Laura expects TSMC to keep 2026E capex guidance and

remain constructive on demand over the next three years.

Intel – Intel reports earnings on 7/23 after market close (see preview). On its April

earnings call, Intel revised 2026E gross capex up to be flat Y/Y (from flat-to-down)

with a focus on equipment spending, which is expected to be up 25% Y/Y. We see