Trade note: Enter longs in 10Y Germany and 10Y UK

Research evidence excerpt

Trade note: Enter longs in 10Y Germany and 10Y UK

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

09 July 2026

Trade note: Enter longs in 10Y

Germany and 10Y UK

Rates Strategy

Francis Diamond AC

(44-20) 7134-1504

francis.diamond@jpmorgan.com

Aditya Chordia AC

We enter tactical long 10Y Germany, with a tight stop and look to take-profit (44-20) 7134-2132

aditya.x.chordia@jpmorgan.com

below 3.0%. This week’s pullback has pushed Bund yields to the upper end of their

Matteo Mamprinrecent ranges (Figure 1Thiswek’spulbackhaspushedBundyieldstotheuperendoftheirrecentranges,improvingthetacticalrisk/rewardinintermediateduration;entertacticallong10YGermany), improving the tactical risk/reward in intermediate

(44-20) 7134-0329

duration in our view. The sell-off over recent sessions has been fully driven by matteo.mamprin@jpmorgan.com

repricing higher of ECB’s tightening expectations reflecting the reescalation of J.P. Morgan Securities plc

US-Iran tensions, fully reversing the rally from around mid-June which was driven

by repricing out of ECB’s tightening expectations on back of US-Iran MOU

announcement (Figure 2Thesel-ofoverrecentsesionshasbenfulydrivenbyrepricinghigherofECB’stighteningexpectationsonrescalationofUS-Irantensions,fulyreversingtheralyfromaroundmid-JunewhichwasdrivenbyrepricinglowerofECB’stighteningexpectationsonbackofUS-Iranceasefiredea).

Figure 1: This week’s pullback has pushed Figure 2: The sell-off over recent sessions

Bund yields to the upper end of their recent has been fully driven by repricing higher of

ranges, improving the tactical risk/reward in ECB’s tightening , fully reversing the rally

intermediate duration; enter tactical long 10Y seen from around mid-June

Germany Decomposition of 10Y German yield based on J.P.