JPM | US Energy: Deal Hopes Offset Strikes, Refiners Best Day of 2026, Ukraine Energy Infra Attacks, China Refiners, China Switches to Copper From Silver, 2Q Base Metals Preview, Steel Consumption & Supply, Pakistan O&G Exploration, VG, Previews

Research evidence excerpt

JPM | US Energy: Deal Hopes Offset Strikes, Refiners Best Day of 2026, Ukraine Energy Infra Attacks, China Refiners, China Switches to Copper From Silver, 2Q Base Metals Preview, Steel Consumption & Supply, Pakistan O&G Exploration, VG, Previews

y prices, we model $1,445mm 2Q26 adj EBITDA, largely

unchanged versus our prior $1,452mm estimate ($1,443mm Street median). As showcased at our conference, Targa continues

to beam with Permian positivity (PSL as well). We model a $737mm G&P result, factoring in a sequential step up in volumes.

As a reminder, on the 1Q call, management noted Permian volumes tracking >250mmcfd higher than the 1Q average. We see

upside to this figure with Waha entering positive territory. TRGP continues to see a constructive near-term production growth

outlook with GCX, Hugh Brinson, and Blackcomb entering service through 2H26, supporting Waha pricing and producer

economics. For Logistics & Marketing, we forecast a $781mm result, reflecting a strong outlook for 2Q loadings and

incremental optimization, particularly on the butane side, though opportunities did decline somewhat toward quarter-end. On

the call we expect management to reiterate confidence in strong inlet volume growth for years to come. Here, we see any

incremental processing plant needs entering service in the 2H28+ time frame, which could possibly inch up near-term capex.

We also look for the latest on LPG export dynamics, producer activity discussions, M&A, and buybacks.

Energy Transfer LP -Thoughts Into 2Q26: Steady as She Goes; Looking for New NatGas/Data Center Projects- Jeremy Tonet

here

• After catching up with the partnership and marking to market commodity prices, we model a $4,585mm 2Q26 EBITDA

result, versus the $4,467mm Street Median and prior JPMe.