Sales & Trading

Research evidence excerpt

Sales & Trading

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 09 July 2026

EM FX

RUB Back a little lower yesterday with spot trading most of the day close to 76.25. Possibly the

sharp gap higher in oil after U.S attacks on Iran helped, though the correlation is not always

apparent these days. Feels like a short term 75.75/78.25 range is setting up, so probably worth

buying usd close to 76.00.

ZAR It was a volatile session for markets, with a slew of Trump headlines suggesting the ceasefire

was over and that the US was going to strike Iran. That pushed risk lower and saw USDZAR

trade all the way up to 16.4825, as the desk saw some demand for the pair in late London

morning/early afternoon. Risk eventually stabilised into the close and has opened higher this

morning. While it still makes sense for risk to be somewhat on the back foot, yesterday’s move

felt exaggerated, so we took the opportunity to sell some EURHUF and, to a much lesser

extent, USDZAR. I really hope we don’t end up back where we were in the US-Iran conflict

just a couple of weeks ago, but that’s clearly a risk, so I’m staying cautious here. Flow-wise, we

saw significant demand for USDZAR yesterday, mainly from real-money and systematic

accounts.

TRY Price action in TRY remains consistent, with activity close to or at state bank offers (currently

around 46.8750). Saw some modest local coprorate demand but nothing exceptional. USDTRY

price action remains in line with the expected depreciation path. Seasonally better current-

account dynamics should continue to support TRY in the near term, while FX deposit data still

show no meaningful signs of local retail dollarisation. We therefore remain long TRY. As long