G10 FX EUR

Research evidence excerpt

G10 FX EUR

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 09 July 2026

G10 FX

EUR Full panic up in the EM space but G10 as chilled as can be, makes sense given post payrolls

people had gotten quite comfortable with the summer of carry view. I find it hard to handicap

the Middle East situation here, you can’t really trust anything either side says at this point but

whether this is a full escalation I don’t know, personally I didn’t think we were ever going to get

a full on peace agreement more likely an elongated uneasy steady state so despite the skirmishes

that still feels the most likely outcome. But given noise levels higher and market levels more

complacent understandable the wobbles.

On the Fed policy side of things I am more confident we have seen the peak hawkishness for a

while and by extension upward pressure on the dollar from this angle, first Warsh at Sintra, then

payrolls, then the minutes last night whilst “a few” saw the case for a hike in June the sense is

the committee is a little more split than the dots may have suggested. CPI next week is

obviously the final piece of the puzzle before a two week gap until the next FOMC meeting and

therefore if semi inline enough for the market to relax a little more.

Clearly a painful day overall, am trying to dig in short usdzar and eurhuf (added tiny more as

whist positioning maybe argues for this squeeze the medium term story and level 360+ does

seem attractive if you have room). On the G10 side lacking overall conviction, as above feel

like the upward dollar impetus is waning in the short term, not sure I want to be short dollars

across the board just yet so still holding small usdchf longs as insurance although price action