INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

JULY 9, 2026

20 SECONDS:

- Geopolitics drove tape yesterday with escalation trade back on (Oil nearing $80, EA/UK rates

underperforming, risk-off). But overarching view that neither side has incentives to re-start kinetic

escalations still holds.

- Despite overnight attacks, markets largely bouncing this morning – with EU outperforming – likely

reflecting some element of ‘TACO’.

- Geopol playbook drove MOMO respite – Tech leadership resumes vs MOMO shorts underperform

on Macro & Consumer exposure. Also halted broadening trade.

- Markets quick to reprice hawkish narrative in EA and UK (UK 2Y gilt move largest since March).

ECB comms reflected these risks (Nagel – “we are back where we began” re Iran) and challenges

progression towards ECB’s “mild” scenario.

- A full resumption in the US/Iran conflict would likely drive EU underperformance again – with

the region widely considered as the ‘de-escalation winner’. Higher energy prices & rates challenges

the improving macro momentum that had supported the region of late.

- Escalating tensions in the ME emphasizes the relevance of Oil Infra and Security and Resilience

Investing. For MENA, renewed attacks also accelerate the pipelines & pipes theme.

MKT INTEL VIEWS: Geopolitics driving the tape, with the escalation trade back in motion - Oil & Rates

higher, Equities generally lower (US Tech the exception), US > EU. Reports that Trump said 'tentative

ceasefire with Iran is done' drove broad risk-off, but stocks closed off lows as the overarching view that

neither side has incentives to re-start kinetic escalations still holds. Despite overnight attacks, markets largely

bouncing this morning – with EU outperforming – likely reflecting some element of ‘TACO’ (reports that