VAR, OMV, TTE/LNG, ARAMCO: EU Energy Sector Specialist Commentary

Research evidence excerpt

VAR, OMV, TTE/LNG, ARAMCO: EU Energy Sector Specialist Commentary

Ian Mitchell - Specialist Sales - European Energy AC (44-20) 7134-1356 Europe Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nian.e.mitchell@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 09 July 2026

LNG shipments in recent weeks from the more expensive spot market.These spot purchases were made to try to stave off a gas

shortfall.

J. P. Morgan View

- FP rallied ~$3 amid a significant escalation in US-Iran tensions, with Trump announcing this morning that he believes the

ceasefire is over and that the US will likely strike Iran again tonight. After the close, explosions were heard south of Iran and Iran

responded saying they will launch massive attacks on US bases in the region shortly. Spreads and phys markets were bid for both

TI and BRT on the news, and the prompt arbs widened ~90c, reflecting greater incentive for US exports if the conflict escalates

further. With FP just ~$7.5 off its lows since the start of the war, it is somewhat surprising that prices are not higher. If this

escalation persists, I would expect FP to move ~$7-10 higher from current levels, as the immediate oversupply from the Strait's

reopening is likely to clear by September, with all BRT and TI benchmarks now trading in backwardation.

- Additionally, more Russian refineries were damaged in attacks and Novak announced a diesel export ban, sending products

higher, with gasoil up nearly $20/bbl at today's high.

Markets - US mkts ended 70bps above European close, NYSE volume 25% below 20day avg. Energy and Tech outperformed,

while Materials and Financials lagged. Momentum snapped back (JPMPURE +2.8%) as US strikes on Iran, with the ceasefire on

ice, lifted oil and yields again and put a halt to any broadening out trade (De-escalation squeeze -3%).