Solid parcel volume growth in 2Q26 Quick Note

Research evidence excerpt

Solid parcel volume growth in 2Q26 Quick Note

Global Markets Research

J&T Express 1519.HK 1519 HK 8 July 2026

EQUITY: INTERNET & NEW MEDIA

RatingSolid parcel volume growth in 2Q26 Remains Buy

Target price HKD 14.00 RemainsQuick Note

Closing price HKD 9.47 7 July 20262Q parcel volume update: impressive parcel volume growth from SEA and other

markets, outperforming full-year guidance; parcel volume growth in China in line

with full-year guidance

We are positive on J&T’s 2Q26 parcel volume growth. The company’s overall parcel Research Analysts

volume increased 24% y-y to 9,177mn in 2Q (accounting for 25% of our 2026F full-year

China Internet & New Mediaestimate), with daily average parcel volume surpassing 100mn. The growth in 2Q

Rachel Guo - NIHKoutpaced our overall parcel volume growth estimate of 21.2% for 2026F despite the macro

rachel.guo@nomura.com

challenges. +852 2252 1400

In Southeast Asia (SEA), its 2Q parcel volumes grew 63% y-y. Despite a slight Jialong Shi - NIHK

deceleration from 1Q growth of 80% partly due to seasonality, growth in 2Q continued to Jialong.shi@nomura.com

outpace J&T’s full-year parcel volume growth guidance of 50%. This indicates strong +852 2252 1409

visibility of achieving at least the guided growth for the whole year. J&T attributed the solid

parcel volume growth to: (1) persistent and rapid online sales penetration despite

macroeconomic challenges from fuel price increases; (2) e-commerce players’ increased

promotional activities and free shipping to boost online retail sales; (3) volume contribution

from non-platform parcels; and (4) continuous market share gains in the region by

leveraging its cost advantages.

On rising fuel prices’ impact on profitability: J&T noted that fuel costs make up only a