REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
Risk Reward Update
Research evidence excerpt
Risk Reward Update
UpdateM
Risk Reward – Albemarle Corporation (ALB.N)
KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR
Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley
Lithium Price ($, mm) 12,162 19,916 18,008 15,680 05 Aug 2026 Q2 2026 Albemarle Corp Earnings Release
03 Nov 2026 -
Lithium EBITDA ($, mm) 697 2,707 2,120 1,687 Q3 2026 Albemarle Corp Earnings Release
09 Nov 2026
Inventories ($, mm) 1,179 1,481 1,645 1,558
FCF ($, mm) 692 757 799 518
INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS
Lithium prices, timing of supply additions, and RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e
EV/ESS penetration rates Lithium price stabilize at >$20K/mt LCE 2,956 Electronics and oil drilling fluids demand A durable increase in ESS demand EBITDA
dynamics' impact on Bromine volumes EV demand growth reaccelerates ($, mm) 2,390 3,657
EBITDA to cash flow from operations Significant pre-funding and contract price 2,944
conversion commitments for new capacity
11.98
RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EPS
7.45 16.30GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE ESS shipments well ahead of demand, creating ($) 12.52
0-10% Japan inventory imbalance
APAC, ex Japan, Mainland EV demand disappoints; further subsidy 10-20% China and India reductions Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates
10-20% Europe ex UK Further equity/convert issuances Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research
10-20% Latin America
10-20% North America
OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 30-40% Mainland China
Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate Inst. Owners, % Active 48%
View explanation of regional hierarchies here HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2x
HF Sector Net Exposure 5.2%
MS ALPHA MODELS
Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund
5/5 24 Month 1/5 3 Month exposures held with MSPB. Information may be
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