Chemicals | North America Weekly Chains Update

Research evidence excerpt

Chemicals | North America Weekly Chains Update

Idea

July 13, 2026 04:03 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMChemicals | North America Vincent Andrews

Equity Analyst

Weekly Chains Update Vincent.Andrews@morganstanley.comTurner W Hinrichs +1 212 761-3293

Research Associate

Turner.Hinrichs@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1269

Steven K Haynes, CFA

North America Polyethylene (PE) market update: spot domestic prices were -7cpp Steven.Haynes@morganstanley.com

Justin T Pellegrino

to -6cpp week-over-week (FOB Houston, railcar), and spot export prices were -4cpp

to -3cpp week-over-week (FCA Houston, railcar). June contract prices were reported Justin.Pellegrino@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4054

down -15cpp month-over-month. We expect that the settlement was below

Chemicals

consensus expectations (which we believe were ~-10cpp). Reports indicated that North America

markets were quiet this week with buyers continuing to hold off on purchases in Industry View In-Line

anticipation of further price declines. That said, resellers reportedly expect that

activity will be up month-over-month, and export commentary is mixed. While some

buyers are still waiting for lower prices, sources reported more willingness to buy

this past week amid restocking in Latin America. A trader noted increased demand

but below levels needed to stabilize prices. Commentary indicates that sources

expect exports to Europe and Latin America to be higher in July month-over-month.

On supply, sources indicate that most producers have continued running at robust

rates. Natural gas prices and ethane prices decreased week-over-week, resulting in

an increased frac spread of 2.38c/gal (vs. 2.22c/gal the prior week). Last week,

ethane prices decreased -1.1c/gal (-4.7%) to 22.4c/gal, while natural gas decreased -