Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Albemarle Corporation (ALB.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

Lithium Price ($, mm) 12,162 19,916 18,008 15,680 05 Aug 2026 Q2 2026 Albemarle Corp Earnings Release

03 Nov 2026 -

Lithium EBITDA ($, mm) 697 2,707 2,120 1,687 Q3 2026 Albemarle Corp Earnings Release

09 Nov 2026

Inventories ($, mm) 1,179 1,481 1,645 1,558

FCF ($, mm) 692 757 799 518

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Lithium prices, timing of supply additions, and RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

EV/ESS penetration rates Lithium price stabilize at >$20K/mt LCE 2,956 Electronics and oil drilling fluids demand A durable increase in ESS demand EBITDA

dynamics' impact on Bromine volumes EV demand growth reaccelerates ($, mm) 2,390 3,657

EBITDA to cash flow from operations Significant pre-funding and contract price 2,944

conversion commitments for new capacity

11.98

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EPS

7.45 16.30GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE ESS shipments well ahead of demand, creating ($) 12.52

0-10% Japan inventory imbalance

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland EV demand disappoints; further subsidy 10-20% China and India reductions Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

10-20% Europe ex UK Further equity/convert issuances Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

10-20% Latin America

10-20% North America

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 30-40% Mainland China

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate Inst. Owners, % Active 48%

View explanation of regional hierarchies here HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2x

HF Sector Net Exposure 5.2%

MS ALPHA MODELS

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

5/5 24 Month 1/5 3 Month exposures held with MSPB. Information may be