The Antipodean Strategist: Out of the gates

Research evidence excerpt

The Antipodean Strategist: Out of the gates

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

09 July 2026

The Antipodean Strategist

Out of the gates

• The RBNZ lifted the cash rate by 25bp this week and signaled further hikes are Australian and New Zealand Interest

likely, but data-dependent. The upcoming 2Q CPI is the next data print of note, Rate Strategy

with the Bank’s updated forecast of 1.3%q/q broadly aligned with our own Ben K Jarman AC

tracking estimate. This would see headline inflation accelerate toward 4%oya, (61-2) 9003-7982

which coupled with still loose policy settings and the RBNZ’s short-term ben.k.jarman@jpmorgan.com

estimate of neutral, should be enough for a follow-up rate hike in September. Tom Kennedy

NZ’s 2s/5s curve is steep relative to this point in the hiking cycle, and biased to (61-2) 9003-7981

flatten as mortgage-related pay flow increases. tom.kennedy@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

• Balance sheet changes were minimal and unlikely to influence markets. The

Committee agreed to bring forward the sale of NZD$141m of NZGBs from July

2027 to June 2027 and divest the LGFA securities due to mature after June 2027,

totaling NZD$392m. Under the prior plan, this small residual position would be

unwound slowly and remain on the balance sheet until 2037. LSAP holdings are

currently around NZD$12 billion, but will fall sharply in the next year on

looming maturities and the QT program.

• NZ’s June manufacturing PMI data were very strong, returning the index to 2021

highs. Strength was broad-based, with large gains across the production, new

orders and employment sub-groups. Importantly, GDP has outperformed NZ’s

composite PMI in recent quarters, so we think June’s strength reflects a partial