Retail Radar: Split-the-Dip as Momentum Cools

Research evidence excerpt

Retail Radar: Split-the-Dip as Momentum Cools

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

08 July 2026

Retail Radar

Jul 8 — Split-the-Dip as Momentum Cools

Retail Trading Activity Overview Equity Strategy and Quantitative

Research

• Retail buying strengthened last week (82%ile), driven by renewed demand Arun Jain AC

for ETFs (71%ile) and continued robust activity in Single Stocks (86%ile). (1-212) 622-9454

arun.p.jain@jpmorgan.com

Sector flows were little changed, with Tech remaining a favorite amid the J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

recent sell-off and buying-the-dip activity concentrated in retail’s preferred AC Shizuka Suga, CFA

names (e.g. Memory leaders). Within ETFs, allocation was stable week-on- (1-212) 622-2134

week, with continued scaling back in SOXL (-1.9z) offset by ongoing buying shizuka.suga@jpmorgan.com

in SMH (2.6z). J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

• As the US military launched a new round of strikes against Iran and oil Ana Pous Avila

rebounded above $80, retail buying in Energy stocks climbed to their (1-212) 622-0496

ana.pousavila@jpmorgan.com

92%ile on Wednesday. However, oil ETFs only saw moderate demand, e.g. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

BNO (1.0z) and USO (0.2z), while short oil positioning (SCO) was trimmed William Matheson

again this week (-1.5z, Figure 7CumulativeRetailImbalanceinSCO). (1-212) 622-9538

• The Momentum factor has been losing steam this month, with Semis leading william.matheson@jpmchase.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLC

the slowdown—our proprietary Momentum crowding metric has declined

Khuram Chaudhry from ~100%ile to 98.6%ile, Figure 4…recently. Retail activity in the High Momentum

(44-20) 7134-6297

names that drove July’s pullback split into two camps: buying-the-dip in khuram.chaudhry@jpmorgan.com