Morning News & Views - Asia: A Summary of Select Global Markets Research

Research evidence excerpt

Morning News & Views - Asia: A Summary of Select Global Markets Research

3.2T transceivers) and long term (NPO and CPO)

Action: Initiating coverage at Neutral with TP of CNY1,655, implying 3.5% downside; secular growth trend in optical communication

market while valuation slightly stretched. As one of the leading suppliers of optical communication chips in China, Yuanjie’s

penetration in the optical transceiver leader’s supply chain in recent years has led to better AI product exposure and margin

expansion. We estimate Yuanjie’s datacom laser chip segment to deliver a revenue CAGR FY26-28F of 119%, and in this segment,

high-end CW (continuous wave) lasers (70mW+) would be the key revenue pillar, contributing 92% to total sales in FY28F. We

believe there are multiple near-term drivers for the company, including further penetration in the CW laser-based silicon photonics

(SiPh) transceiver market, 1.6T/2.4T/3.2T upgrades, while long-term drivers include NPO (near-field packaged optics) and CPO

(co-packaged optics). We expect the company to record revenue/earnings CAGRs of 109%/114% over FY26-28F.

Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US) (Buy) - June quarter preview: more resilient earnings (TP USD 178.00)

Jialong Shi - NIHK / Rachel Guo - NIHK

Robust AI cloud, weak e-commerce; maintain Buy

Stronger cloud offset weaker ecommerce business. As noted in our 24Junereport, we expect BABA’s June quarter results to be a

mixed bag – the company is likely to report weak China ecommerce CMR (customer management revenue), down 8% y-y or up

slightly by 1% y-y on a like-for-like basis. However, its China Cloud revenue likely grew 45% y-y, by our estimate, much higher than

the Street expectation of 37.5%. We estimate that the ARR (annualized recurring revenue) from its MaaS (Model-as-a-Service)