1QFY27 Retail consumption: slightly ahead of expectation: Quick Note

Research evidence excerpt

1QFY27 Retail consumption: slightly ahead of expectation: Quick Note

Global Markets Research

Phoenix Mills PHOE.NS PHNX IN 9 July 2026

EQUITY: PROPERTY

Rating1QFY27 Retail consumption: slightly ahead of expectation Remains Neutral

Target price INR 1,700 RemainsQuick Note

Closing pricePhoenixMillsshareshaverallied21%overthepastthreemonths(vsNifty50’sflat 8 July 2026 INR 2,023

returns)supportedby:(1)expectationsforstronggrowthindomesticconsumption

demand;and(2)ageneralimprovementinmarketsentimentonexpectationsforreduced

MiddleEastconflict-relatedvolatility.For1QFY27,thecompanydeliveredstrongretail Research Analysts

consumptiongrowthof +32%y-yto INR42.7bn,whichinourviewwasdrivenby India Propertystronger-than-expectedperformanceofnewmalls(PhoenixMallofAsia,Bengaluru,and

Akash Gupta - NFASLPhoenixMalloftheMillennium,Pune). akash.gupta3@nomura.com

Thestockcurrentlytradesat23xFY28FEV/EBITDA(vsmeanof23xoverthepastyear + 91 22 40374043

andourimpliedvaluationof19xFY28FEV/EBITDA).

Belowarekeytakeawaysfromtheupdate:

• Impact of consumption beat (vs our expectation) on 1QFY27 estimates – we

fine-tune 1QFY27F consolidated revenue/EBITDA growth upwards to 16%/19%

y-y (vs 14%/15% y-y previously)

○ 1QFY27 retail consumption growth at +32% y-y was ahead of our estimate by 4%.

○ Similar to previous quarters, we expect 1QFY27F retail income growth to lag

consumption growth. Nevertheless, due to the consumption beat, we raise our

1QFY27F retail income growth estimate by 3%, and now expect retail income to

grow to INR6.1bn (+20% y-y; vs 17% previously)

○ In addition, hotel segment RevPARs were strong with The St. Regis, Mumbai and

Courtyard by Marriott Agra recording RevPAR growth of 15% y-y and 23% y-y,

respectively, despite disruptions due to the war in the Middle East.