US Daily Commentary

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Commentary

Global Markets Research

8 July 2026US Daily Commentary

Economics - North America

Research Analysts

Review & Preview North America Economics

Review Aichi Amemiya - NSI aichi.amemiya@nomura.com

FOMCmeetingminutes: The FOMC minutes did not break new ground, but the “outlook +1 212 667 9347

for monetary policy” section appears to have shifted toward scenario-based guidance. Jeremy Schwartz - NSI

Rather than emphasizing disagreement over the base case, the minutes highlight the jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com

+1 212 667 9637overlap between participants’ uncertainty bands. Most participants discussed scenarios

where inflation pressures dissipate and inflation returns toward 2%, in which case keeping Ruchir Sharma - NSI

rates steady or eventually lowering them would likely be appropriate. But they also pointed ruchir.sharma@nomura.com

+1 212 667 9186to scenarios where, with stable labor market conditions, inflation remains elevated due to

AI-related demand, the Middle East conflict, or tariffs, in which case some policy firming

would likely be warranted.

This change appears consistent with Warsh’s push to downplay overly precise policy

communication and turn down the precision on forward guidance. There were also some

signs of his influence on AI, with “some participants” noting that AI-related productivity

should put downward pressure on inflation, though this would likely take time to

materialize. Interestingly, “most” participants were concerned about strong economic

activity boosted by AI business investment “could contribute to more persistent inflationary

pressures”, suggesting in the short run, the Committee saw AI as inflationary.

Overall, these were subtle shifts rather than a radical overhaul. The length of the minutes

was shortened only modestly.