There is always only one truth! The principles behind containership rates: EQUITY: JAPAN TRANSPORTATION

Research evidence excerpt

There is always only one truth! The principles behind containership rates: EQUITY: JAPAN TRANSPORTATION

Global Markets Research

8 July 2026Shipping

EQUITY: JAPAN TRANSPORTATION

There is always only one truth! The principles Research Analysts

behind containership rates Japan transportation Masaharu Hirokane - NSC

Rise in containership rates reflects slower steaming due to focus on masaharu.hirokane@nomura.com

margins, port congestion, and solid transport volumes +81 3 6703 1142

Skepticism likely to dissipate as investors understand principles behind rising

containership rates

Spot rates and contract rates for containerships, one of the main businesses of Nippon

Yusen [9101] (Buy), Mitsui OSK Lines [9104] (Buy), and Kawasaki Kisen [9107] (Neutral),

have been rising as a result of peak season surcharges and general rate increases. Major

containership operator Maersk raised its CY26 profit guidance on 29 June. Share prices

have been weak on the prospect of future oversupply, but we see potential for share price

reassessment via: (1) Apr–Jun results and guidance for profits; (2) the new normal in the

Middle East, with no return to the pre-war status quo; (3) the way that companies have

been reining in supply with an eye to margins; and (4) the way that growth in ships will not

translate directly into increases in shipping capacity because of port, fuel, and container

constraints. Among Japanese shipping companies, Kawasaki Kisen is highly exposed to

containerships, and could attract attention if and when investors reassess their outlook for

this business.

Rise in rates comes as no surprise

We attribute this rise in rates to: (1) slower steaming in order to boost fuel efficiency in the