Brazil Commodity Chemicals: Data Cracker: Petchcm Monthly (Jul‘26)

Research evidence excerpt

Brazil Commodity Chemicals: Data Cracker: Petchcm Monthly (Jul‘26)

Brazil Commodity Chemicals

08 July 2026 Citi Research

US Chemicals — Periodic Crowding Table - Weekly Valuation and Crowding

Overview

Below we analyze positioning using Citi Quant team’s data (Excel download) and

present key valuation metrics and share price moves for our coverage. While the

crowding composite data is not intended to be a buy/sell signal by itself, we believe

it can serve as a valuable tool for investment consideration.

Patrick Cunningham

Global Chemicals Cracker - Markets have moved on

Share prices of beneficiaries from the Middle East conflict have corrected sharply

from recent peaks, effectively pricing in further declines in spreads, which remain

above pre-conflict levels for now. Macro indicators continue to point to a moderate

demand recovery. The average spread declined by 6% MoM in June, while the

median remained flat. The largest negative moves were in Polyols (EU) and MDI as

well as TDI in Asia, while benzene and Asian ethylene recorded the strongest gains

during the month.

Sebastian Satz, CFA | Ranulf Orr, CFA | Omi Pallavi | Patrick Cunningham | Oscar Yee

Chemical Distillate - Compressing Oil/Gas Ratio in 2H26; 2Q26 Previews Out

Oil/gas ratio to compress in 2H26 to 2025 levels. De-escalation leads us to focus

on price/cost advantage and modestly improved demand outlook.

Air Products & Chemicals (APD.N) - Removing Upside 90-Day Catalyst

Watch

We replace our positive catalyst watch on APD with a negative short-term view. We

remove the positive catalyst watch as we now see increasing probability for the

Darrow project to move forward. We are initiating a negative short-term view on

APD, supported by our view for potential headwinds as the de-escalation of the