The flare up in the Strait and what it means

Research evidence excerpt

The flare up in the Strait and what it means

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

09 July 2026

The flare up in the Strait and what

it means

More cautious on MSCI UAE with zero UAE stocks in

the Top 10

The flare up in Hormuz – Iran firing on ships in the Gulf as well as military CEEMEA & South Africa Equity

bases in Qatar and Bahrain; US firing on Iran; US revoking its waiver of the Strategy

sanctions on oil sales by Iran; and Trump declaring the ceasefire is over – has David Aserkoff, CFA AC

added $7 to Brent crude in <24 hours and moved MENA equities on Wednesday (44-20) 7134-5887

with Yansab +3% and Aramco +2.6% versus DFM -1.5% and Aldar -1.2%. We left david.aserkoff@jpmorgan.com

Aramco in our CEEMEA Strategy Top 10 as a hedge when we moved into J.P. Morgan Securities plc

reopening winners in our 15 June upgrade here. We did not add any stocks in UAE Inga Q Galeni AC

and wrote, “we worry in the UAE context that the US-Iran agreement leaves (27-11) 507-0335

inga.galeni@jpmorgan.com

longer-term security risks in the region and does not change the narrative around J.P. Morgan Equities South Africa (Pty) Ltd.

Feb ‘26 being the peak of Dubai’s real estate cycle.” This flare up in the last 36

hours justifies some of our caution. Investors looking for further hedges to this

flare up can look at Yansab, a petchem with Red Sea production, and South

Africa’s Sasol, a high-beta oil/petchem stock, both of which were in our top 10

during the conflict.

For MENA equities, the renewed attacks also accelerate the pipelines & pipes

theme which we think is the most interesting part of the MENA equity

landscape – we wrote about this yesterday (here) just before the latest round of

violence intensified. We continue to flag our JPM MENA Energy Infrastructure