European Luxury Goods: On your marks...thoughts into Q2/H1 ‘26 reporting; place Brunello Cucinelli on Positive Catalyst Watch

Research evidence excerpt

European Luxury Goods: On your marks...thoughts into Q2/H1 ‘26 reporting; place Brunello Cucinelli on Positive Catalyst Watch

h July). In contrast, we do not see the Q2 reporting season as a Specialist Sales contact details:

major catalyst, either way, for the main leather goods stories: the already light Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales -

positioning at LVMH, Kering and Hermes (less so at the latter) should provide a floor European Consumer

to share prices, but at the same time muted Q2 trends, despite the easy comps and (44-20) 3493-3709

consensus estimates into H2 and next year still pointing to no upside for now, should olivia.b.petronilho@jpmorgan.com

cap the upside for the time being.

JPMe OSG yoy in Q2 26E

• Q2 26 to be in line to slightly better than Q1. We expect Q2 luxury sales 15% 14%15% c.+4% yoy on average growth, broadly in line with the Q1 +4% sector average, 11%

and retail growth at +6% ex-FX. Within the mix, we expect ongoing strength 6% 7% 8%

of the American consumers (our Chase credit card data continue to suggest an 0% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4%

improvement of discretionary spend), solid trends with the Korean cohort and 0%

the region, and the continued resiliency of the Japanese clientele. For Europe, -5%

-8%

we also expect to hear more positive commentary around the tourist spend

LFL LFL DTC Retail Retail Retail Retail F&LG F&LG LVMH Kering Group during peak season, albeit mixed depending on the nationality exposure. The Brby LV HB Hermès Retail Richemont JM Brand Gucci Brand Prada Kering Pandora only region where we expect more muted trends in Q2 than in Q1 is China, Richemont Ferragamo BC following a good Chinese New Year and with most data points we track Moncler Zegna

pointing to still volatile, and overall lacklustre, patterns.