EM Frontier Local Markets Compass: Surviving the knock-out stages

Research evidence excerpt

EM Frontier Local Markets Compass: Surviving the knock-out stages

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

08 July 2026

EM Frontier Local Markets

Compass

Surviving the knock-out stages

Emerging Markets Strategy

Ayomide O Mejabi AC

(44-20) 7134-9399

ayomide.mejabi@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• We still expect frontier local markets to remain resilient, even as the US Cameron(44-20) 7742Smith6508

cycle stays firm. Frontiers have weathered the Middle East conflict fairly well. cameron.x.smith@jpmorgan.com

We think frontier carry will remain core to investment strategies for now. J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• The Fed remains a central swing factor for global markets, yet its Santiago J Olalquiaga Calcano

transmission to frontier FX is more conditional than markets assume. (1-212) 622 2484

Frontier FX has had mixed performance into Fed hiking cycles. santiago.olalquiagacalcano@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

• Unremarkable but resilient global growth, mid-range oil prices, and early- Ikue Saito

stage dollar strength should see high-carry frontier FX still outperform. (65) 6801-3154

• FX continues to dominate our risk-reward scorecard. ZMW is still the clear ikue.saito@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch

leader, while UAH remains the weakest. LKR and PKR also screen poorly.

EM Economic and Policy Research

• Country outlooks: (1) Sri Lanka, (2) Egypt, (3) Nigeria, (4) Uganda, (5) Katherine Marney

Kazakhstan, (6) Paraguay. (1-212) 834-2285

• Frontier Market Strategy: We recently entered FX/carry longs in Sri Lanka katherine.v.marney@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLC

via short USD/LKR 9m NDFs and in Uganda via UGANGB 39s. We also hold

Gbolahan S Taiwo Egypt longs via EGYTB 10/06/26, and Nigeria via NGOMOB 08/04/26. We

(44-20) 3493-3412