JAPAN FIRST TO MARKET

Research evidence excerpt

JAPAN FIRST TO MARKET

Asia Pacific Equity Research

Japan First to Market 09 July 2026

Top Stories

Japan Quant Strategy (Masanari Takada)

Using a quant lens on Kioxia vs. Toyota — Kioxia’s momentum-driven selling takes a breather, but is

trend-following buying in Toyota just temporary?

Today (July 8) AI momentum-related stocks continued to perform poorly during Asian trading hours. The Nikkei Average is

trending around 68,000 and semiconductor-related stocks in the Tokyo market are trending in line with South Korean

stocks. AI-related stocks are also struggling in the South Korean market, creating a market environment that suggests a

reversal, with non-AI-related stocks relatively outperforming across all regions.

Japan Banks: Earnings Outlook (Apr-Jun) (Takahiro Yano, CFA)

Watching whether guidance is revised at 1Q results to reflect BOJ rate hike in June

We expect many major regional banks that did not announce a share buyback in May to announce buybacks during the Japan

bank sector’s 1Q FY2026 results reporting season (Figure 4). An even more important watchpoint is whether banks will

incorporate the June BOJ rate hike into their guidance. As shown in Figure 3, many banks have not factored in the rate hike. If

their guidance takes into account interest rate sensitivity to only a single rate hike , some banks may decide that they do not

need to revise guidance, but if any banks move quickly to revise guidance with 1Q results, we would view this positively as a

sign of confidence in business progress. Among the megabanks, we believe Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) is the

least likely to report eventful 1Q results . We do not expect MUFG to revise guidance with 1Q results, as its guidance already

assumes a mid-2026 rate hike.