Daily Economic Briefing: Squishing quantifiers

Research evidence excerpt

Daily Economic Briefing: Squishing quantifiers

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

08 July 2026

Daily Economic Briefing

Squishing quantifiers

Economic and Policy Research

Maia Crook

(1-212) 622-8435

maia.crook@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

• A renewal of conflict in the Middle East prompted President Trump to say he Alex(1-212)Gallin270-5492

thinks the ceasefire is over and that the US may reinstate its naval blockade of alex.gallin@jpmorgan.com

the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices prices jumped nearly 6% today in response. JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

The current price level of $78/bbl does not yet challenge our view that last Nora Szentivanyi

quarter’s shock is fading and that global growth will proceed at an above- (44-20) 7134-7544

potential pace. But the events overnight are a stark reminder that the Middle nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

East conflict is not resolved, which keeps the risk of a larger-than-expected J.P. Morgan Securities plc

energy sector disruption elevated. Joseph Lupton

(1-212) 834-5735

Petro-based product prices joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com

Index, Sep '25 = 100 Natural Gas JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

210 (Europe) Conflict

Jet

190 Fuel

Crude

Urea

Oct 25 Dec 25 Jan 26 Apr 26 Jun 26

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan

• The minutes of the June FOMC meeting were hawkish, but not surprisingly so.

While all participants supported keeping policy unchanged at the last meeting,

it was also noted that “a few participants” (a group including voters and non-

voters alike) said there was a case for raising the funds rate.

• The discussion of the policy outlook presented in the minutes was shortened

and less informative. It was framed in terms of scenarios with little use of

quantifiers that would provide detail on the diversity and intensity of views.