Romania: NBR on hold at 6.50%, slightly dovish

Research evidence excerpt

Romania: NBR on hold at 6.50%, slightly dovish

J P M O R G A N CEEMEA Economic Research

08 July 2026

Romania: NBR on hold at 6.50%,

slightly dovish

EM, Economic and Policy Research

Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc

(44 20) 7742-2466

nicolaie.alexandru@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

July statement shows the NBR is increasingly confident of disinflation in both

the short term (base effects and oil) and the medium term (wider negative

output gap). As widely expected, the NBR kept the key rate unchanged at 6.50%;

other policy parameters - liquidity management and the required reserve ratios -

also remained unchanged. As usual, there was no forward guidance in the

statement, but the NBR now appears more confident in disinflation, likely helped

by lower Brent prices and base effects. The NBR continues to see sharp disinflation

during 3Q26, largely as electricity prices saw a sharp increase in July 2025 and VAT

and excise were hiked in August 2025. The NBR also highlights the "increasingly

obvious underlying disinflationary pressures" driven by aggregate demand.

Liquidity data points to a decrease from May levels, but still a large RON

surplus (RON28.3bn daily average in June - Figure 1). In this context, it comes

as no surprise that the NBR kept required reserves and liquidity management

unchanged. The decline from May levels is worth about EUR1.7bn and represents,

in our view, the impact of the NBR selling EUR to stabilize EURRON. Last week

we estimated more than EUR2bn worth of selling but gave a EUR1.5 to EUR3bn

potential range (Romania: possibly a significant NBR FX intervention in June).

Armed with additional data on contingent liabilities of NBR and liquidity, we now

estimate that the NBR sold close to EUR3bn in June, marking the largest month of