China Basic Materials: 1H26 Earnings Preview: Value set-up improves as rate concerns ease

Research evidence excerpt

China Basic Materials: 1H26 Earnings Preview: Value set-up improves as rate concerns ease

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

09 July 2026

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China Basic Materials

1H26 Earnings Preview: Value set-up improves as rate

concerns ease

The MSCI China Materials Index has rebounded 2% MTD (vs MSCI China +2% Asia Basic Materials

AC) as focus comes back to earnings after a few months of macro factors diverting Avery Chan

attention, such as supply-side geopolitical disruptions and rate-hike concerns. We (852) 2800-8659

see opportunities in the results and expect copper, aluminum and lithium avery.chan@jpmorgan.com

companies to start issuing positive profit alerts. We also turn more positive on Sabrina Liu

Ganfeng, and see outperforming opportunities after the recent pullback due to the (852) 2800-8535

upcoming downstream restocking season and most short-term negative catalysts sabrina.liu@jpmorgan.com

having played out. Zijin Mining and Zijin Gold remain our top picks; we think Frankie Fong

the concerns on Indonesia aluminum supply are overdone and reiterate our OW on (852) 2800-8574

frankie.fong@jpmorgan.com

Chalco and China Hongqiao (valuation gap narrowing vs global peers). Our sector J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

pecking order is Copper > Gold > Aluminium > Lithium > Coal > Steel. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

• How are share price drivers changing? We expect investors’ focus to slowly