Phoenix Mills: Another quarter of strong consumption; playing for an overshoot

Research evidence excerpt

Phoenix Mills: Another quarter of strong consumption; playing for an overshoot

Gaurav Khandelwal, CFA AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

(91-22) 6157-3575 09 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

gaurav.khandelwal@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Phoenix Mills (Overweight; Price Target: Rs2,000.00)

Investment Thesis

We are OW on Phoenix Mills.

The Phoenix Mills is a Mumbai-based operator of some of the largest retail spaces in India,

with approximately 11msf currently under operation and an additional 7msf in the

development pipeline. The company also manages commercial buildings, with 3msf

operational and another 4msf under development, alongside a growing hospitality portfolio

(~600 keys in operation, 400 under construction) and residential assets (5msf gross saleable

area, with occupancy certificates received for 3msf).

Phoenix Mills is highly proactive in reimagining and redesigning its retail layouts, driving

higher consumption and, ultimately, stronger rental income. This is reflected in a robust

15% consumption CAGR at its malls over the past 12 years, significantly outpacing the 11%

growth in India’s private consumption expenditure. Recent fiscal and monetary support

from the government—including tax cuts and improved liquidity—further bolsters the

outlook for broader consumption, a key driver for the stock. Notably, since 2012, the

correlation between Phoenix Mills’ share price and private consumption expenditure in

India has been exceptionally high at ~0.9.

We expect retail area under operation to exceed 14msf by FY28, with a substantial portion

of new additions coming in that year, driving a 15% retail rental income CAGR and

potentially accelerating further in FY29/30. Commercial leasable area is projected to