Magellan Financial Group Limited: FY26 preview: 4Q26 flows very weak, even adjusting for Vinva transfer; we cut FM again; Barrenjoey growth prospects may take a while to offset; stay UW

Research evidence excerpt

Magellan Financial Group Limited: FY26 preview: 4Q26 flows very weak, even adjusting for Vinva transfer; we cut FM again; Barrenjoey growth prospects may take a while to offset; stay UW

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

08 July 2026

Magellan Financial Group Limited

FY26 preview: 4Q26 flows very weak, even Underweight

adjusting for Vinva trasnfer; we cut FM again; MFG.AX, MFG AU

Barrenjoey growth prospects may take a while to Price (08 Jul 26):A$10.53

offset; stay UW Price Target (Jun-27):A$9.00

We update our earnings to reflect MFG's 4Q26 FUM update released today and Insurance and Diversified Financials

ACdiscuss key issues to consider in the upcoming FY26 results. MFG’s 4Q26 ending Siddharth Parameswaran

Group AUM closed at A$36.7bn, around 6% below the A$39.1bn we forecast, with (61-2) 9003-8629

the entire miss coming in retail. Investment returns in 4Q, despite being positive, siddharth.x.parameswaran@jpmorgan.com

came in slightly worse vs. JPMF and the retail flow trajectory ran well ahead of J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

JPMF, as the A$3.7bn of at-risk mandates flagged on 5 May began manifesting as Rishi S Parihar

outflows (we had already allowed for a transfer to Vinva - now $4.9bn). We cut (91-22) 6157-3775

rishi.parihar@jpmchase.com

FY27E FM operating profit by 25.1% and normalised NPAT by 4.6%, and lower J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

closing FUM by around 6% across the forecast period. The FM division's earnings

Tharan Jeyathasan

will now likely be materially lower, and the prospects from here rely much more (61-2) 9003-6098

on Barrenjoey. Whilst we think there is potential for them to gain market share in tharan.jeyathasan@jpmorgan.com

some of their newer divisions, we worry that synergy savings from the merger may J.P.