2Q26 Copper Volume Lags with Inventory Destocking Pushed to 2H26

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Copper Volume Lags with Inventory Destocking Pushed to 2H26

Update

July 8, 2026 01:15 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMIvanhoe Mines Ltd | North America Carlos De Alba

Equity Analyst

2Q26 Copper Volume Lags with Carlos.De.Alba@morganstanley.comJustin A Ferrer +1 212 761-4927

Research Associate

Justin.Ferrer@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-5246

Inventory Destocking Pushed to

Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (IVN.TO, IVN CT)

Metals & Mining | Canada2H26

Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View In-Line

Price target C$13.20

Key Takeaways Shr price, close (Jul 7, 2026) C$10.04

Mkt cap, curr (mm) US$10,122

We expect 2Q26 EBITDA estimates to come down, but full 2026 to remain 52-Week Range C$20.34-9.95

mostly unchanged.

Stock may slightly underperform peers today.

We remain OW this medium to long-term re-rating story, but emphasize the need

to have patience.

What's new? Ivanhoe reported 2Q26 copper anode production of 64.3kt and copper

in concentrate output of 61.1kt from the Kamoa-Kakula complex, which was below

the Visible Alpha consensus of 72.2kt and 67.1kt, respectively, and also below MSe

of 75kt and 69kt. The lower anode volume was primarily the result of an extended

shutdown in the quarter at the LCS smelter, preventing the destocking of copper in

concentrate inventory, which remained unchanged in the quarter at 40kt. Ivanhoe

has left its full-year anode production guide unchanged at 290-330kt, with the

planned destocking of up to 10-15kt of copper held in inventory set to take place

during H2 2026.

At Kipushi, zinc production in the quarter reached a record 70.1kt, above the VA

consensus of 66.2kt and MSe of 67kt.

Update on Operations at Kamoa-Kakula. 2Q26 production was impacted by lower

ore availability at the Phase 1 and 2 concentrators as well as the temporary LCS

shutdown.