Competition for Copper

Research evidence excerpt

Competition for Copper

Idea

July 24, 2026 04:00 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+Mmetal&ROCK | Europe Amy Gower (Amy Sergeant), CFA

Commodities Strategist

Competition for Copper Amy.Gower1@morganstanley.comBen Kelson +44 20 7677-6937

Research Associate

Ben.Kelson@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1392

Copper is being pulled into China and the US simultaneously, Martijn Rats, CFA

tightening global inventories and pushing up prices and EquityMartijn.Rats@morganstanley.comAnalyst and Commodities Strategist +44 20 7425-6618

timespreads. With supply constrained, we see further upside to

copper ahead, with any China grid investment in 3Q likely Exhibit 1 : Seaborne copper imports to the US

supportive. Middle East escalation remains the key risk. continue to be incentivised, and remain well

above the 15-20kt/week that we estimate the

Key Takeaways US needs

US Copper Imports and COMEX-LME Spread

US excess importing has driven around 2.3% of copper demand YTD and shows US Seaborne Copper Imports (t/week) COMEX-LME Spread (3m, $/t, RH Axis)

no sign of slowing, despite no tariff decision yet. 90,00080,000 3,0003,500

70,000

China demand is rising too, with physical premiums surging, driven by scrap 60,000 2,500

tightness, restocking and potential grid/infrastructure demand. 50,00040,000 1,5002,000

30,000

Supply is challenged, with mine supply down YTD and misses on 2Q earnings. 20,000 1,000

10,000 500

Copper is our top pick – MSe $14,250/t on LME and $6.85/lb on COMEX for Q4. 0 -

Jan-24 Jul-24 Jan-25 Jul-25 Jan-26 Jul-26

The biggest risk is Middle East escalation driving growth concerns and rate hikes. Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research

Competition for copper across the Pacific: Potential US copper import tariffs Exhibit 2 : Despite elevated copper prices, the