2Q26 production and unit cost miss

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 production and unit cost miss

Update

July 15, 2026 06:46 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MAntofagasta | Europe Ioannis Masvoulas, CFA

Equity Analyst

2Q26 production and unit cost Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.comAlain Gabriel, CFA +44 20 7425-0427

Alain.Gabriel@MorganStanley.com +44 20 7425-8959

miss Ferdinand Huber

Research Associate

Ferdinand.Huber@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2702

Reaction to earnings Adahna Ekoku

Strengthens our thesis Modest shortfall Largely unchanged Adahna.Ekoku@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0578

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Antofagasta (ANTO.L, ANTO LN)

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Metals & Mining | United Kingdom

Stock Rating Underweight

Key Takeaways Industry View In-Line

Price target 3,570p

2Q26 copper production/sales 7%/13% below consensus, net cash costs 7% miss Shr price, close (Jul 14, 2026) 3,843p

52-Week Range 4,475-1,811p

consensus (9% miss vs MSe) Mkt cap, curr (mn) US$50,787

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* US$3,241

We see high-single digit downside to 1H26 EBITDA expectations, but expect a EV, curr (mn)* US$71,906

catch up in H2, bringing FY impact to low single digits. * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

Lower D&A and ETR cushion the impact at the 1H26 EPS line

All major projects remain on track and on budget

We expect ANTO shares to underperform the sector at the open

Volumes and costs miss: Group copper production of 141.9kt was 7% below

consensus and 6% below MSe. Los Pelambres was the key driver of the miss partly

due to greater impact from the pipeline maintenance which delayed ~7kt of copper

to H2 (vs MSe at 4kt). Meanwhile, copper sales of 130.7kt lagged production on

adverse port conditions and should catch up in H2.