Latin America Metals & Mining: Data Mining: June 2026

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Latin America Metals & Mining: Data Mining: June 2026

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08 Jul 2026 09:09:36 ET │ 21 pages

Latin America Metals & Mining

Data Mining: June 2026

CITI'S TAKE

Gabriel Barra AC

We have updated our Data Mining with SECEX data for June 2026. Brazilian +55-11-4009-2223

iron ore export data in the month was robust, marking a strong close to gabriel.barra@citi.com

2Q26, with total exports reaching 42.2mt, a notable increase of 50.9%

MoM and 16.1% YoY. In 2H26, Brazilian exports showed stability compared Alexander Hacking, CFA AC

to the same period in 2025, recording 190kt vs 187 kt, respectively. Notably, +1-212-816-6232

China and Asia Ex-China were the primary destinations that gained alex.hacking@citi.com

relevance during the month, with significant volumes, and we also observed

a recovery for the Middle East following the conflict. Freight costs should Pedro Ferreira De Mello

likely weigh on mining companies' results in the second quarter. Currently, +55-21-4009-0425

58% iron ore is trading at a discount of approximately US$15/t, while 65% pedro.mello@citi.com

iron ore commands a premium of US$16.5/t. Citi’s Commodities Team

projects iron ore prices to stabilize at US$85/t in mid-term (2028). Also this

month, we published Vale's 2Q26 preview (report).

Highlights and Implications — With the sharp drop in sea freight to US$28/t at the

end of June (from peak of US$37.5/t), our expectation is that Usiminas’ mining

segment and CMIN's mining results will show a QoQ improvement in margins in

3Q26 due to costs, in contrast to 2Q26 which was pressured by the same factor.

Volumes are stable YoY until now but with a seasonal upward trend, and June was

significantly stronger than in recent years. It's also worth noting the impact of rainfall