CEEMEA Economics & Strategy Daily: Oil driven risk-off, HU CPI

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CEEMEA Economics & Strategy Daily: Oil driven risk-off, HU CPI

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08 Jul 2026 05:47:36 ET │ 15 pages

CEEMEA Economics & Strategy Daily

Oil driven risk-off, HU CPI

CITI'S TAKE

Luis E Costa, CFA AC

The fate of the Hormuz deal remains unclear with more risk-off headlines +44-20-7986-9757

causing a spike in oil prices. luis.costa@citi.com

Alexander Rozhetskin ACGlobal Macro – On the Iran/US events over the past 24 hours, it is important to note

the US also revoked a waiver on new sales of Iranian oil (which was a very important +44-20-7508-4787

rollback of US oil sanctions). According to specialist estimates (newsweek, 23-Jun- alexander.rozhetskin@citi.com

26) , the waiver mean USD30-50m/day at higher volumes and prices without heavy AC Bhumika Guptadiscounts. A permanent lift of these sanctions could mean tens of billions annually.

That is significant for the Iranian regime, in the current macro context. Given the +44-20-7986-5933

price relief on Brent over the past weeks, the 2-3% upside reaction overnight makes bhumika1.gupta@citi.com

a sense in our view. In the context of EM curves, more specifically CEE curves, the AC Nikola Apostolovretracement in received positions may continue as flows tried to capitalise on the

recent lower CPIs, so we expect some reflux in CZK and HUF receivers at this point. +44-20-7986-6499

We maintain a view of light EUR FX downside bias in this environment, especially if nikola.apostolov@citi.com

US soft data does not decelerate much in the coming weeks/months. The recent pick AC Katie Kironde

up in Eurozone soft data (sentiment gauges, surveys, etc.) shouldn’t be a surprise

+44-20-7986-3315given the MoU led energy relief, but we still believe ESI divergence between US and