US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

JULY 8, 2026

IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN BRIEF

• QUICK THOUGHTS ON THE MKT – Did we just hit the bottom? We give color on bond yields, macro

data, and oil prices.

• DELTA-ONE FLOWS & POSITIONING – Bram tells us that the Memory theme remains strong;

geopolitical hedging demand fades; Investors rotate from Energy/Materials to Discretionary / Tech /

Financials / HC / Staples; ETF rebalance noise persists

• US MKT INTEL VIEW – we consider the Bull Case v. Bear Case, maintain our Tactical Bullish call,

and update the Monetization Menu with some additional ideas from D1’s Manish Sinha.

JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES

• SPX -1.0%, NDX -1.4%, RTY -1.5%. WTI +602bps at $74.68, NatGas +224bps to $3.34, UK NatGas

+619bps to £1.1761, Gold -125bps to $4,055, Silver -230bps to $58.60, 10Y @ 4.575%, and VIX @

18.76.

• US: Futs are down as Trump says he thinks the ceasefire is over after the latest kinetic volley. The

situation has not materially changed with neither US / Iran showing a desire for an extended conflict.

On the US side, Trump had argued that the ceasefire paused the 60-day limit before he is required to

get Congressional approval to extent military hostilities. He was facing resistance to secure additional

funding for the war and next year’s military budget during the ceasefire, so another spike to fuel prices

adds to that political headwind. On the Iran side, they want legal control of SoH but likely want higher

oil prices to pressure Trump and to maintain revenue given the lack of demand for their unsanctioned

oil. Pre-mkt we are seeing risk assets come for sale but are bouncing from their lows. WTI breached

$75/bbl (+6%) before declining as the Energy complex leads cmdtys higher. Precious are getting hit