Antero: 2Q26 Preview: Anticipating In-Line Ops, But Lower Financials vs. Street on Softer Gas Capture; Powerful Long-Term Structural Margin Improvement Story

Research evidence excerpt

Antero: 2Q26 Preview: Anticipating In-Line Ops, But Lower Financials vs. Street on Softer Gas Capture; Powerful Long-Term Structural Margin Improvement Story

which implies average

production of ~4.2 Bcfe/d over 2H26. We are modeling $1.3 B of total capex in Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

2026, which assumes AR leans into $200 MM of growth optionality this year to Adj. EPS ($)

complete an additional two to three pads in 2026, bringing our FY27 estimate to 2025A 2026E 2027E

4.5 Bcfe/d of volumes under $1.2 B of total capex. Our updated cash cost estimate Q1 0.78 1.15A 1.16

Q2 0.35 0.84 0.56

assumes a ~$2.40 per Mcfe run-rate for the balance of this year, and we now assume Q3 0.16 0.91 0.72

a further reduction in cash costs to ~$2.33 per Mcfe in 2027 and ~$2.26 per Mcfe Q4 0.43 0.98 1.01

in 2028. We note that a significant portion of the anticipated reduction in cash costs FY 1.72 3.88 3.46

is expected to materialize at the very end of 2028 as the company’s agreements with

Style Exposure

ATEX and Mariner reach their conclusion. At recent 2026/27 strip pricing of $3.65/

$3.43 per Mcf, we now estimate FCF of $1.2 B and $1.2 B in 2026 and 2027,

respectively, which should support a step-up in cash returns via the buyback.

During our recent fireside chat with AR, management noted that it is actively

evaluating its buyback program at the current equity valuation, which it believes

is not reflecting recent operational enhancements or liquids pricing, potentially

supporting an acceleration of share repurchases in the near term.

Taking a closer look at the quarter, we anticipate a relatively straightforward print

for AR, with our estimates falling below the STe on our mark-to-market to 2Q bid-

week Henry Hub prices of $2.89 per MMBtu. We forecast 2Q26 EPS/CFPS of

$0.84/$1.83 vs.