The Global Point

Research evidence excerpt

The Global Point

Western Europe Aerospace & Defense - Challenges and opportunities in the

European Space sector

The European space industry is undergoing a fundamental transition from its

legacy GEO-centric model toward high-growth LEO constellations, defense

applications, and sovereign communications. This shift is driven by a structural

decline in launch costs, which has commoditized space access, and the

productionisation of smaller satellites. We believe the most attractive

opportunities are concentrated in LEO connectivity, Earth observation, and

downstream data analytics, while traditional launch providers and GEO-focused

businesses face significant structural headwinds. Although European primes like

Airbus and Thales Alenia Space remain leaders in complex spacecraft, they lag US

competitors in mass-scale LEO manufacturing and vertical integration. Future

success will depend on incumbents' ability to adapt to this new industrial model

while leveraging stable institutional demand from programs like IRIS².

Charles J Armitage

Trend in launch costs (Heavy launchers - $/kg to LEO)

Period Typical Cost to LEO Key Industry Dynamic

1980s– 2011 (Space Shuttle Government-led space

~US$50,000– 55,000/kg

era) economy

2000s (Expendable Rocket Commercial GEO market

~US$10,000– 15,000/kg

era) expansion

2018– Present (Reusable Constellation and broadband

~US$1,500– 3,000/kg

Falcon 9 era) boom

Potential next phase of

Space X Starship Target: ~US$100– 200/kg

disruption

Western Europe Airlines - Value Gap Widening - Lufthansa to Sell, IAG Remains

Our Top Pick

Lufthansa and IAG’s shares have moved in tandem over the last year, but

underlying fundamentals are diverging. IAG trades at a lower multiple for a

business that is more profitable, generates more cash, and carries less debt.