EM FX Daily Report - 8th July 2026. Wed Jul 08 2026

Research evidence excerpt

EM FX Daily Report - 8th July 2026. Wed Jul 08 2026

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 08 July 2026

EM FX

RUB Slightly topsy turvy day in usd/rub with the pair dropping 100 kopek to 76.00 early in the day,

only to finish more or less unchanged at 76.85/15. Never the easiest currency to fathom! My

sense is that buying dips is the right approach but the speed and magnitude of the dips doesn't

make it entirely straightforward.

ZAR The US revoked a waiver allowing new sales of Iranian oil and carried out strikes in Iran

overnight in response to the attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. This has pushed oil off the

lows, with Brent up more than 3% this morning, which should be negative for ZAR overall. As

I’ve been writing in my comments over the past few days, I squared up my USDZAR shorts

last Friday, as I felt the pair couldn’t go much lower than 16.20 in the short term. That said, my

overall view on the currency remains constructive, so I’ll be looking to fade any outsized ZAR

weakness should we see it soon

TRY Price action in TRY remains consistent, with activity close to or at state bank offers (currently

around 46.8575). USDTRY price action remains in line with the expected depreciation path.

Seasonally better current-account dynamics should continue to support TRY in the near term,

while FX deposit data still show no meaningful signs of local retail dollarisation. We therefore

remain long TRY. As long as retail dollarisation stays contained, which remains the case so far,

the FX policy framework should stay intact, with controlled nominal depreciation remaining the

base case.

PLN Fresh escalation in the Middle East overnight plus Trump revoking Iran’s oil sale waiver