G10 FX

Research evidence excerpt

G10 FX

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A N

laoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com G10 FX Daily Report - 8th July 2026

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 08 July 2026

JPY Market attention remains firmly on JPY and the risk of intervention, with USD/JPY continuing

to hover over recent highs. We saw significant USD/JPY demand from RM accounts yesterday

—materially larger than the USD/JPY supply we saw from systematic accounts—but it was still

easily absorbed, with spot trading mostly unchanged through the session and only moving

higher overnight. In CHF, there wasn’t a huge amount to latch onto as FX remains in a holding

CHF pattern ahead of next week’s data; the dollar recovered through the session, though it came off

the highs sharply overnight with USDCHF now back below 0.8070. Our CHF view is

unchanged: we’re happy to sell the franc on rallies versus the dollar, using it as a hedge against

higher-beta longs elsewhere.

AUD The RBNZ hiked rates to 2.5% O/N and delivered what I would consider a data dependent

slightly hawkish lean, as expected. The NZ has outperformed post the decision, in part due to

the fact that the move wasn’t fully priced, but with NZ rates still below their peers, this is no

‘smoking gun’ for an aggressive rally in NZD in my opinion. While the board expects some

further unwinding of stimulatory stimulus, the outlook remains uncertain and before we get tooNZD

carried away, next week’s QSBO and 2Q inflation on the 20th will be important. While I cannot

rule out further gains for a currency that has been unloved for months, buying dips in AUDNZD

towards the 100DMA ~ 1.2101 is the game plan.

CAD Overnight, the US carried out strikes in Iran and revoked the waiver permitting new Iranian oil