INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

could be linked to front-loading. Over the coming months, fiscal spending is likely to lift manufacturing

output.

- CHINA MONTHLY DATA OUTLOOK: We expect some stabilization in June data after the April–May

soft patch, but the recovery remains narrow and externally supported. PMIs improved modestly,

exports remain helped by high-tech and AI-related demand, and lower oil prices eased cost pressure.

Domestic demand weakened further: May retail sales fell 0.6%oya, FAI contracted 10.7%oya,

infrastructure FAI dropped 9.4%oya, and real estate FAI declined 24.3%oya. The near-term question

is whether fiscal execution can turn available funding into activity before external demand becomes

less reliable. If exports slow before domestic demand recovers, resilient production would translate

into inventories, margin compression, and renewed producer-price weakness.

- TRANSITION TALKS: The debate around rapid AI-driven data center build-outs is shifting from solely

the perspective of “can the grid serve this?” to “should communities accept this?”. Particularly in the

U.S., Compute demand increasingly looks like a distinct new category of electricity use. Public

opposition can accelerate and become financially material, especially where projects cluster, such as

in metropolitan areas. Regulators are moving to stop socializing data-center-driven grid costs. Energy

storage stands out as a near-term, scalable lever because it reshapes load without requiring new net

energy supply. Typical daily demand profiles can swing roughly 50% peak-to-trough, leaving unused

capacity in trough hours that storage can capture and redeploy into peak hours.

- TODAY’S CATALYSTS: FOMC Minutes, RBNZ & NBP. UST 10Y $39bn auction. Trump/Zelensky to