Unicredit/Commerzbank - Results today; Bawag small upgrades

Research evidence excerpt

Unicredit/Commerzbank - Results today; Bawag small upgrades

Gigi Sparling - Specialist Sales - European Financials AC (44-20) 7134-0355 Europe Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nghislaine.sparling@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 08 July 2026

Gigi Sparling

+44 207 134 0355

ghislaine.sparling@jpmorgan.com

2 Key Highlights Today:

1. Unicredit/Commerzbank: Final results today

2. Bawag: Small upgrade to estimates

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The Detailed Highlights

Post results, Newswires & Away from Us

Global Financials wrap, Trading Recap and Colour

Global Financials Research Links

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Unicredit/Commerzbank: We get the final results of Unicredit’s tender offer for Commerzbank today. Whilst we’ve no precise

time, the previous results have come mid afternoon. At this point we think the market want to see Unicredit get control of

Commerzbank and to move on given the deal has been slowly progressing for almost 2 years. A reminder that as of June 19th

Unicredit have around 42% (27% share holding + c.12.5% tendered +3% share settled derivatives) ownership. On top of that they

have cash settled TRS for 13%. Orcel has said at a conference post June 19th that all non-passive institutional investors bar 5 have

tendered their shares. The most likely scenario at this point is that Unicredit have control of Commerzbank i.e. over a 40%

shareholding – the question being whether that could nudge towards 50% ex the cash settled TRS which would be a positive. If

the ECB give Unicredit authorization to go beyond a 30% stake, the next decision by the regulator is whether Unicredit have

control i.e. need to consolidate the RWAs – which we think will be the case.